The Pentagon’s 2024 AARO Historical Report made the sweeping assertion, again without any supporting evidence, that:
All investigative efforts, at all levels of classification, concluded that most sightings were ordinary objects and phenomena and the result of misidentification.[1]
It went on to state that the
…vast majority of reports almost certainly are the result of misidentification.
NHIR would take issue with any assertion that the vast majority of UAPs are
almost certainly”
the result of misidentification without first seeing hard evidence to support such a claim. But there is no doubt at all that a large number of sightings are misidentifications of prosaically explicable objects.
SOME EXAMPLES OF UAP-UFO MISIDENTIFICATIONS
STARLINK
One of the most common misidentifications made by witnesses of UAPs is to confuse Starlink satellites for UAPs. Space X satellite launches commonly leave a prominent trail of bright orb-like light objects in the night sky that are highly visible in the days after a launch. So, it is extremely important in the checking process to cross-reference the date and time and location of Starlink launch schedules to see if there has been a recent launch.
This can be done by checking here: https://www.spacex.com/launches/.
You can also check the specific location of Starlink satellites here: https://findstarlink.com/.
Here’s a link to a recent paper that analysed an incident over the Pacific Ocean in 2022 which was initially thought to be anomalous but turned out to be Starlink satellites – a cautionary tale for all sky-watchers investigating potential UAPs.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.08155.
CELESTIAL OBJECTS
Because of her brightness in the night sky, the planet Venus is one of the most commonly objects mistaken as an anomalous UAP sighting, closely followed by Jupiter and Mars. Planets, comets, meteors, and other natural phenomena are all too often easily confused for UAPs, especially when viewed through moving clouds – because the effect is to make it seem like the clouds are stationary and the planetary object is moving. NASA’s JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) publishes this excellent guide online, educating common UAP misidentifications: https://nightsky.jpl.nasa.gov/news-display.cfm?News_ID=597.
AIRCRAFT & UAVs
Aircraft can mistakenly appear anomalous when viewed through cloud cover or when visually refracted through water vapour in the atmosphere. Another common misidentification is when the shadow of a high airplane or helicopter is reflected on a lower cloud base, giving the illusory effect of a fuselage moving over cloud at high speed.
It’s important to keep all of this in mind when you see an object in the sky that you suspect might be anomalous because atmospheric conditions, especially refraction through clouds or moisture can make these lights appear anomalous.
There’s also an anti-collision light, red or white under most aircraft and it will either be rotating or flashing as a strobe. Aircraft will also have a front landing light and, often, because a plane is on approach, these landing lights can look like a hovering orb light.
Not all aircraft have transponders transmitting when they fly but most do, certainly all commercial aircraft. Transponders broadcast information about a plane’s identification and altitude to the air traffic controllers directing air traffic on the ground and through what’s called TCAS (Traffic Collision Avoidance System) to communicate the plane’s position to other nearby aircraft.
The flight tracker apps such as FlightRadar24 use the data from what are called ADS-B ground-based receivers that receive flight information from aircraft with ADS-B transponders. This is a very useful tool to allow a potential sighting to be correlated with known aircraft movement data.
But it is important to be aware that while commercial aircraft are required to have a transponder, and that it is not permitted to operate a plane without a transponder into certain classes of airspace typically found near major airports or above 18,000 feet, there are a lot of privately owned aircraft that won’t show up on flight tracker software, such as light aircraft.
So, not seeing an aircraft on a flight tracker app does not mean it is not an aircraft but it’s a useful start for investigating a sighting. You can access FlightRadar24 here: www.flightradar24.com. There are other flight tracker apps as well, including FlightAware https://www.flightaware.com/.
ROCKET AND BALLISTIC MISSILE LAUNCHES
There is a very useful website for checking known orbital space missions worldwide to check for missile and rocket launches by nations such as the US, Russia and China. The SpaceFlightnow.com website updates all planned orbital missions worldwide, detailing launch site and time of launch: https://spaceflightnow.com/launch-schedule/
LENS FLARE & PARALLAX EFFECT
Many amateur camera users do not realise that cameras sometimes caught light to bounce off the lens element in the camera or binoculars in such a way that it causes a lens flare. These tricks of light can sometimes look like solid objects.
Another common misidentification is the optical illusion caused by what is called the parallax effect. Humans perceive distant moving objects as moving slower as compared to objects that are much closer. This can often lead to confusion, making an observer think they are seeing an anomalous craft of some kind.
For example, many errant sightings of supposed UAPs happen when an insect flies across the camera lens and it appears as a blurry distinct object moving very fast across the screen, the observer mistakenly thinking the insect/‘object’ is much further away. Very often insects, especially at night, are mistaken for craft moving at incredible speeds at a distance, especially when bright lights or flash photography brightly illuminates their body mass.
This parallax effect might also explain some of the images taken by people who think they’ve captured images of ‘craft’ moving across the surface of the moon – they’re sometimes insects or satellites that are far closer to the Earth than the viewer realises and the parallax effect gives the false impression that the object is moving at incredible speeds, whereas it is merely much closer to the lens than it appears.
The parallax effect also explains why distant aircraft sometimes give the illusion of appearing to be hovering stationary in the air. The moving aircraft is much further away than the observer realises, and this gives the false impression that the aircraft is not moving at all.
The Pentagon’s 2024 AARO Historical Report made the sweeping assertion, again without any supporting evidence, that:
All investigative efforts, at all levels of classification, concluded that most sightings were ordinary objects and phenomena and the result of misidentification.[1]
It went on to state that the
…vast majority of reports almost certainly are the result of misidentification.
NHIR would take issue with any assertion that the vast majority of UAPs are
almost certainly”
the result of misidentification without first seeing hard evidence to support such a claim. But there is no doubt at all that a large number of sightings are misidentifications of prosaically explicable objects.
SOME EXAMPLES OF UAP-UFO MISIDENTIFICATIONS
STARLINK
One of the most common misidentifications made by witnesses of UAPs is to confuse Starlink satellites for UAPs. Space X satellite launches commonly leave a prominent trail of bright orb-like light objects in the night sky that are highly visible in the days after a launch. So, it is extremely important in the checking process to cross-reference the date and time and location of Starlink launch schedules to see if there has been a recent launch.
This can be done by checking here: https://www.spacex.com/launches/.
You can also check the specific location of Starlink satellites here: https://findstarlink.com/.
Here’s a link to a recent paper that analysed an incident over the Pacific Ocean in 2022 which was initially thought to be anomalous but turned out to be Starlink satellites – a cautionary tale for all sky-watchers investigating potential UAPs.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.08155.
CELESTIAL OBJECTS
Because of her brightness in the night sky, the planet Venus is one of the most commonly objects mistaken as an anomalous UAP sighting, closely followed by Jupiter and Mars. Planets, comets, meteors, and other natural phenomena are all too often easily confused for UAPs, especially when viewed through moving clouds – because the effect is to make it seem like the clouds are stationary and the planetary object is moving. NASA’s JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) publishes this excellent guide online, educating common UAP misidentifications: https://nightsky.jpl.nasa.gov/news-display.cfm?News_ID=597.
AIRCRAFT & UAVs
Aircraft can mistakenly appear anomalous when viewed through cloud cover or when visually refracted through water vapour in the atmosphere. Another common misidentification is when the shadow of a high airplane or helicopter is reflected on a lower cloud base, giving the illusory effect of a fuselage moving over cloud at high speed.
It’s important to keep all of this in mind when you see an object in the sky that you suspect might be anomalous because atmospheric conditions, especially refraction through clouds or moisture can make these lights appear anomalous.
There’s also an anti-collision light, red or white under most aircraft and it will either be rotating or flashing as a strobe. Aircraft will also have a front landing light and, often, because a plane is on approach, these landing lights can look like a hovering orb light.
Not all aircraft have transponders transmitting when they fly but most do, certainly all commercial aircraft. Transponders broadcast information about a plane’s identification and altitude to the air traffic controllers directing air traffic on the ground and through what’s called TCAS (Traffic Collision Avoidance System) to communicate the plane’s position to other nearby aircraft.
The flight tracker apps such as FlightRadar24 use the data from what are called ADS-B ground-based receivers that receive flight information from aircraft with ADS-B transponders. This is a very useful tool to allow a potential sighting to be correlated with known aircraft movement data.
But it is important to be aware that while commercial aircraft are required to have a transponder, and that it is not permitted to operate a plane without a transponder into certain classes of airspace typically found near major airports or above 18,000 feet, there are a lot of privately owned aircraft that won’t show up on flight tracker software, such as light aircraft.
So, not seeing an aircraft on a flight tracker app does not mean it is not an aircraft but it’s a useful start for investigating a sighting. You can access FlightRadar24 here: www.flightradar24.com. There are other flight tracker apps as well, including FlightAware https://www.flightaware.com/.
ROCKET AND BALLISTIC MISSILE LAUNCHES
There is a very useful website for checking known orbital space missions worldwide to check for missile and rocket launches by nations such as the US, Russia and China. The SpaceFlightnow.com website updates all planned orbital missions worldwide, detailing launch site and time of launch: https://spaceflightnow.com/launch-schedule/
LENS FLARE & PARALLAX EFFECT
Many amateur camera users do not realise that cameras sometimes caught light to bounce off the lens element in the camera or binoculars in such a way that it causes a lens flare. These tricks of light can sometimes look like solid objects.
Another common misidentification is the optical illusion caused by what is called the parallax effect. Humans perceive distant moving objects as moving slower as compared to objects that are much closer. This can often lead to confusion, making an observer think they are seeing an anomalous craft of some kind.
For example, many errant sightings of supposed UAPs happen when an insect flies across the camera lens and it appears as a blurry distinct object moving very fast across the screen, the observer mistakenly thinking the insect/‘object’ is much further away. Very often insects, especially at night, are mistaken for craft moving at incredible speeds at a distance, especially when bright lights or flash photography brightly illuminates their body mass.
This parallax effect might also explain some of the images taken by people who think they’ve captured images of ‘craft’ moving across the surface of the moon – they’re sometimes insects or satellites that are far closer to the Earth than the viewer realises and the parallax effect gives the false impression that the object is moving at incredible speeds, whereas it is merely much closer to the lens than it appears.
The parallax effect also explains why distant aircraft sometimes give the illusion of appearing to be hovering stationary in the air. The moving aircraft is much further away than the observer realises, and this gives the false impression that the aircraft is not moving at all.
